Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? Odds fell to 23% on Sep 12, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? On , the market’s odds fell from 47.5¢ to 23¢ (-24.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Walter Bloomberg. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Sep 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 36.5¢ → 23.5¢-13 ptsafter a signal from abkt198990
- 30.5¢ → 45.5¢+15 ptsafter a signal from Iran Semi-Official Mehr
- 28¢ → 45¢+17 ptsafter a signal from iranintl
- 28¢ → 44.5¢+16.5 ptsafter a signal from Iranian Media
- 29¢ → 44.5¢+15.5 ptsafter a signal from Iran Semi-Official Tasnim
- 29¢ → 44.5¢+15.5 ptsafter a signal from Iran's judiciary-run Mizan
- 44.5¢ → 35¢-9.5 ptsafter a signal from Russian Media
- 44¢ → 30.5¢-13.5 ptsafter a signal from Iranian Journalist
- 44¢ → 30.5¢-13.5 ptsafter a signal from sharghdaily
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.