Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? Odds fell to 23% on Sep 12, 2026

OpenMove

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? On , the market’s odds fell from 47.5¢ to 23¢ (-24.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Walter Bloomberg.

How did the odds move?

At match47.5¢
+5m37¢
+30m26.5¢
+1h23¢
1h move-24.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 36.5¢ → 23.5¢-13 ptsafter a signal from abkt198990
  • 30.5¢ → 45.5¢+15 ptsafter a signal from Iran Semi-Official Mehr

What moved the odds?

NeutralWalter Bloomberg97%match
IRAN-GULF TALKS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE HORMUZ DEAL • • Monday’s meeting between Iran and Gulf states in Oman is not expected to produce a signed agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian official told Reuters. • • Tehran still wants the right to collect fees from ships transiting the strait, a demand Oman opposes. The talks come as escalating tanker attacks and regional tensions keep global oil supply risks elevated.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 29% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES29¢
NO71¢

Vol$36K

Follow this market

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.