Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? Odds jumped to 38% on Sep 12, 2026

OpenMove

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? On , the market’s odds jumped from 19.5¢ to 38¢ (+18.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Iranian Media.

How did the odds move?

At match19.5¢
+5m20¢
+30m37¢
+1h38¢
1h move+18.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 20¢ → 40.5¢+20.5 ptsafter a signal from Iran's judiciary-run Mizan

What moved the odds?

YesIranian Media94%match
New details about the final understanding between Iran and Oman / The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened with this understanding Informed source: The understanding between Iran and Oman was finalized in early September and will be announced soon in the presence of the foreign ministers of the Persian Gulf countries. The route of entry to the Persian Gulf is completely in Iranian waters and part of the exit route is also in Iranian waters; traffic under Iranian arrangements and the southern route will be closed. This understanding does not mean the opening of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran has announced 7 conditions to the United States and the strait will remain closed until they are implemented./ Mehr @IRIBNEWS_COM

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 20% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES20¢
NO80¢

Vol$187K

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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.