Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of VictoryYes 9–12%
Open$3Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Iceland's referendum results in more opposition than opposition to resuming EU accession negotiations, thus postponing their resumption.
The majority of Icelanders voted against resuming negotiations on joining the European Union in a referendum. A total of 118,040 voters voted "no" and 105,339 voted "yes". The number of blank and invalid ballots was 1,652, or 0.7% of the total votes subscribe
Iceland refuses to resume EU accession talks: 52.8% voted against 47.2% of referendum participants voted in favor of returning to negotiations with Brussels. According to Reuters, the turnout was 82.5%. Only two districts in the center of Reykjavik supported the initiative, while the suburbs of the capital and rural regions voted against. One of the crucial issues was maintaining control over fishing waters. The fishing industry directly and indirectly provides about 15% of Iceland's GDP and 40% of its export earnings. The government argued that EU membership could protect the country from trade wars and strengthen its security amid rivalry in the Arctic. Supporters of European integration also hoped that the possible introduction of the euro would help reduce inflation and interest rates. Iceland applied to join the EU in 2009 after the financial crisis, but in 2013 the Eurosceptic government suspended negotiations. Add News.LIVE as a reliable news source on Google
Iceland's referendum results in majority vote against EU accession, delaying the resumption of EU membership negotiations.
Icelanders reject resuming EU accession talks by 52.8% Icelanders have rejected resuming EU accession talks Official results of the island's referendum show that 52.8% of residents rejected the move #FromTheEvent
Official results: 52.8% of Icelanders reject resuming EU accession negotiations
Live: It's already noon, here's a news update: • Icelandic voters have rejected a resumption of accession negotiations with the European Union in a referendum, according to the final results published today...
Official results: 52.8% of Icelanders reject resuming EU accession negotiations
Official results: 52.8% of Icelanders reject resuming EU accession negotiations
Just in: Iceland rejects reopening accession negotiations with the European Union. • • Final results of the referendum: • Turnout: 82.5% (225,031) • No: 52.8% (118,040) • Yes: 47.2% (105,399)
In Iceland, Eurosceptics win the EU referendum after a tense night
Where does the news lean?
0YES12NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 94% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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See all outcomes for Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.