Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament Election: Party WinnerYabloko
Open$770as of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Yabloko, Russia's only remaining openly anti-war political party, was just banned. • • • • Also recently, Nadezhdin (from a different party) had to flee to France: • • • • Looks like the last traces of political opposition are being removed leading up to the legislative election next month.
NONews92%match99¢-1%
The Central Election Commission will urgently consider changes to the ballot paper when the decision on Yabloko comes into force.
As expected, Russia's Supreme Court - an arm of the Kremlin - has disqualified the anti-war party Yabloko from running in the upcoming parliamentary elections, due next month. The petition was filed by a small nationalist party - one of those Putin allows to run to create a false image of pluralism - which accused the party of being an agent of the West aimed at undermining the Russian state.
Yabloko was disqualified from the State Duma elections. The Supreme Court heard the Rodina party's lawsuit on August 10. A significant portion of Rodina's accusations consisted of alleged violations of intellectual property laws. Yabloko faced harsh criticism and accusations of alleged foreign support from political forces supporting the special operation. Opponents' main complaint is the party's candidates' call for an immediate ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Interfax: The Russian Prosecutor General's Office bans the anti-war Yabloko party from participating in parliamentary elections.
NOReuters92%match99¢-1%
Russia’s General Prosecutor Office Barring of Russia’s Anti-War Yabloko Party From Taking Part in Parliamentary Election - IFX
Russia's liberal party Yabloko is threatened with exclusion from the election.
NOReuters92%match100¢-2%
Russian Supreme Court to Consider Lawsuit Barring Anti-War Yabloko Party From Parliamentary Elections, TASS Reports
NONews91%match100¢-2%
URGENTLY, the Russian Supreme Court will hear the case on the deregistration of the Yabloko candidate list on August 10.
Where does the news lean?
0YES10NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Kaliningrad Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
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