Warsh out as Fed ChairDecember 31, 2026

OpenVol$29KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES3¢
NO97¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NONick Timiraos, WSJ93%match97¢
Kevin Warsh raised rates and gave investors little reason to think it's a one-off. The Fed chairman's language suggests the central bank sees more work ahead, even if its projections show just one more hike. • • His comment about having "removed a dose of accommodation" is Fed-speak for stimulus, meaning officials don't think rates are restraining the economy even after raising them. • • He also cited geopolitics as a reason to act. His comment about a change in "our judgment about what is the most likely or least likely" outcome suggests the Fed is no longer treating the energy shock as something to wait out. • • That led one analyst, BNP's James Egelhof, to suggest that the first hike and the additional 2026 hike penciled into the rate projections is "likely a down payment on what might need to be a much more prolonged policy tightening cycle." • • President Trump said Wednesday evening that he was standing by the chairman, who he said has “a very tough board" that is politically opposed to him. “I talked to Kevin. I said, ‘You might as well vote with the board because it’s not going to matter." • • Warsh declined to discuss his conversations with the president but said the choice to raise rates had been “one that we have been preparing for and thinking about” since he arrived at the Fed in May. He called it a “sober,” “serious,” and “responsible” decision. • •
NOReuters91%match97¢
Trump: Still Have Confidence in Fed Chair Warsh

Where does the news lean?

0YES8NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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