US GDP growth in Q2 2026?1.0–1.5%
ResolvedOutcome: No$4Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
US GDP grew 1.5% in April-June, slowing from the previous quarter and below market expectations.
US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the April-June quarter, below market expectations and slowing from the previous quarter.
Economic growth was weaker than expected in the second quarter while inflation in June held well above the Federal Reserve’s goal, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. • • Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services, increased just 1.5% for the April-through June period, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers adjusted for seasonality and inflation. • • Excluding food and energy, core PCE posted a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual level of 3.3%, against respective forecasts for 0.2% and 3.3%. • • Full details:
YESNews91%match8¢-100%
Preliminary US GDP for the April-June quarter rose 1.5% year-on-year (Reuters forecast: 2.1% increase).
Where does the news lean?
4YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
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