UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?0.8–0.9%
ResolvedOutcome: No$4Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The UK economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, indicating a slowdown in growth.
[UPDATE] UK economy grows 0.4% in second quarter (first reported at 2026-08-13T06:02:03Z)
UK GDP grew 1.6% in the April-June quarter, showing resilience despite the Hormuz crisis, but slowing down from the previous quarter.
UK Q2 GDP up 0.4% after 0.6% in Q1… • • Pretty solid again, especially given the circumstances of Hormuz blockage, rising energy prices and generalised geopolitical uncertainty. • • GDP per head up 0.4% in q2, and monthly GDP up 0.3% in June… • • Service sector growth, especially 3.7% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities (possibly AI investment)… no mention of a weather/ world cup effect… but consumer confidence ticked up (less negative) in this time acc to GFK NOP • • UK economy outperforming the “vibes” especially on here, can be seen in some other figures.
GDP grew 0.4% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026. • • Services (+0.5%) and construction (+0.3%) both grew while production (0.0%) was flat. • • Read more
NONews93%match99¢+1%
UK GDP for April-June quarter increased 0.4% compared to the previous quarter.
NONews92%match99¢+1%
*UK PRELIM 2Q GDP RISES 0.4% Q/Q; EST. +0.4%
NOdbnews91%match99¢+1%
*UK APRIL-JUNE GDP GREW 0.4% 3M/3M; EST. +0.4%
NOReuters92%match99¢+1%
UK Q2 Prelim GDP +0.4% QQ vs Q1 +0.6% QQ (Reuters Poll 0.4% QQ)
NOReuters94%match100¢
BoE Sees Underlying Q2 GDP Growth of +0.1% (June: Around +0.2%), Expected to Slow to Around 0% in Q3; Headline Q2 GDP Growth Seen at 0.3%
Where does the news lean?
0YES11NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Related markets
See all outcomes for UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.