Turkey rejoins F-35 programDecember 31, 2026

OpenVol$32KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES10¢
NO91¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOSemafor Reporter92%match89¢+1%
New: Sources across the Trump administration and in Congress have questions about executing Trump’s plans to sell F-35 fighter jets to Turkey; some doubt that Turkey will ever take the needed steps for F-35 reinstatement. • • At the center of the saga is the Russian S-400 system — there’s multiple potential paths forward, but no one path has been decided on, resulting in a limbo state for the deal. W/ @Eleanor_Mueller @LMorganbesser

Where does the news lean?

0YES1NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur: - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner; - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or - the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components. Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met. Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.

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