Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
Open$182Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
Where does the news lean?
4YES1NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 53% — signal sentiment, not the market price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. but do not formally recognize the country as a sovereign state will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.