How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?3
Open$32Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NORussian Media - MOD99%match95¢+4%
Hawaii's Kilauea volcano erupted again. A lava fountain rose 400 meters into the sky, blanketing nearby areas with ash. Some of the rock ejected by the volcano was the size of a football. This is the 43rd episode of the ongoing eruption of the "fire mountain," according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Kilauea Volcano is considered the most active volcano in Hawaii. On January 25, it erupted nearly 500 meters. On December 7, January 13, and January 16, the eruption reached up to 300 meters. [in reply to: Scarily beautiful: a powerful eruption of the Kilauea volcano has begun in Hawaii. Two lava fountains nearly 300 meters high are gushing from the vent, and an ash column has risen 10.5 kilometers. Winds are blowing volcanic gases and ash to the southwest. The U.S. Geological Survey has issued an orange alert. Residents are advised to stay away from ash and particles from the "fire-breathing dragon" as they can cause breathing problems and skin and eye irritation. ]
NOBelarus State News Agency98%match95¢+4%
A volcano in Hawaii erupted with lava fountains up to 350 meters high.
Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
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