Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?10-15
Open$11Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Reuters: Shipping tracking data shows the number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped below 10.
Reuters: Number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz drops to less than 10
Hormuz commodity ship transits fall to single digits, shiptracking data shows
Reuters: Number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz drops to less than 10
Strait of hormuz ship crossings remain in single digits, data shows
Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows
International Monetary Fund: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by 90 percent Julie Kozak, a spokeswoman for the International Monetary Fund, said that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 10 percent of its pre-US-Iran conflict level. According to her, some countries have used up their strategic oil and gas reserves, but these reserves must be replenished over time. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
IMF: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 10% of pre-war levels
Live: Shipping traffic through Hormuz in single digits, data shows
NONews93%match96¢+4%
URGENT Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is 10% of pre-conflict levels – IMF
Where does the news lean?
2YES28NO12neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
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