Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?40+
Open$6Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Twelve Saudi ships escape Bab al-Mandab Zionist company Windward: In the past two weeks, 12 Saudi oil tankers and bulk carriers have changed their routes, avoiding traffic through Bab al-Mandab. During this period, ship traffic has decreased from 52 to 20, and the travel time for an oil tanker from Taiwan to Yanbu has increased from 24 to 56 days.
12 Saudi-flagged tankers and bulkers are on the same route around the Cape of Good Hope right now. None through Bab el-Mandeb. • • The detour adds roughly 4,000-6,000 nautical miles and 10-14 days to a Europe or Mediterranean-bound voyage. Several of these vessels changed their stated destination more than once in the past two weeks, and some only locked one in after passing South Africa. • • A carrier rerouting its fleet around a chokepoint while keeping destinations ambiguous is a risk signal worth reading.
Where does the news lean?
1YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
IMF PortWatch
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See all outcomes for Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.