Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Open$1.4Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
To monitor Russian and Chinese activity, the US plans to establish three military bases in southern Greenland.
YESCNBC99%match12¢-67%
Greenland should be prepared for 'everything,' prime minister says, not ruling out U.S. military action
NOAcyn99%match88¢+9%
Jacobs: There’s been talk about dogsleds—those are actually specialized warfare units, because dogsledding is the only way to get to certain parts of Greenland. We don’t have that capability.
NOPolymarket99%match89¢+8%
[Replying to @rawsalerts] @rawsalerts 89% chance nothing happens. > #BREAKING: Greenland's Prime Minster has told its residents to prepare for a possible invasion by the United States and they should be on hight alert
NOFirst Squawk99%match89¢+8%
GREENLAND SAID TO BE PREPARING FOR POTENTIAL INVASION - Greenland’s prime minister says people should start preparing for a possible military invasion, even though it’s unlikely. He warned the threat can’t be ruled out as U.S. pressure over the island continues. To help, the…
YES*Walter Bloomberg98%match11¢-64%
*GREENLAND SAID TO BE PREPARING FOR POTENTIAL INVASION Greenland’s prime minister says people should start preparing for a possible military invasion, even though it’s unlikely. He warned the threat can’t be ruled out as U.S. pressure over the island continues. To help, the…
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match89¢+8%
The appetite to acquire Greenland through other means appears higher, via economic sanctions or actively buying it. [Quoting @WarMonitor3]
> A YouGov poll indicates 86% of Americans would disapprove of using military force to invade Greenland.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match89¢+8%
A YouGov poll indicates 86% of Americans would disapprove of using military force to invade Greenland.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match89¢+8%
Will Donald Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Polymarket sees this at just 17 percent chance despite the administrations insistence in occupying the Artic territory, a strong European response in deployment and rhetoric has created more hesitance. What do you think?
Where does the news lean?
4YES11NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.