How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?<5

OpenVol$24KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES1¢
NO99¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NONOTUS Reporter98%match98¢+1%
.@SpeakerJohnson: "Despite my false narrative, • there's only five competitive Republican seats where someone's retired... So we're comfortable about that."

Where does the news lean?

0YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

What would make this resolve YES?

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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