July Unemployment Rate4.1%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$7Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
US jobs fell by 23,000 in July, well below market expectations; unemployment rate improved to 4.1% from the previous month.
The U.S. economy saw an unexpected decline in jobs during July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday in a snapshot that showed a slowing employment picture. • • The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% as the labor force participation rate fell further to 61.4%, its lowest in more than five years. • • Read more:
JUST IN: U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls Fall by 23K, Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.1% • • U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, well below market expectations for an increase of 80,000. The previous reading was revised down from a gain of 57,000 to 20,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below expectations of 4.2% and down from 4.2% previously.
*US JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.2%
YESNews94%match100¢
*US JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.2%
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The US unemployment rate for July was 4.1% (Reuters forecast was 4.2%).
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U.S. July Unemployment Rate 4.1% (Consensus 4.2%)
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*US JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.2%
Chicago Fed Prelim US July Unemployment Rate Forecast 4.13% (prev 4.19)
Where does the news lean?
9YES0NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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