What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?Fed Rate Cut
ResolvedOutcome: No$277Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Warsh confirmed as the next Fed Chair; attention focused on how he will respond to Trump's "pressure to cut interest rates."
BREAKING: Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in a 54–45 vote. • • Warsh replaces Jerome Powell, who will stay on the board as a Fed governor, despite repeated criticism from President Trump, who has been pushing the Fed to cut rates and accused Powell of making decisions "too late." • • Democrat John Fetterman was the only member of his party to join Republicans as the lone vote from his party to back Trump’s pick.
BREAKING: Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in a 54–45 vote. • • Warsh replaces Jerome Powell, who will stay on the board as a Fed governor, despite repeated criticism from President Trump, who has been pushing the Fed to cut rates and accused Powell of making decisions "too late." • • Democrat John Fetterman was the only member of his party to join Republicans as the lone vote from his party to back Trump’s pick.
The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as head of the Federal Reserve, Reuters reports. On May 12, the Senate confirmed Warsh to the Federal Reserve Board, granting him a 14-year term. Donald Trump nominated the financier for the post of the new head of the agency at the end of January. Warsh previously served on the Board of Governors of the US central bank and advised the American leader on economic issues. The current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's term expires in May 2026. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: Donald Trump would like more decisive action from Kevin Warsh to lower the key interest rate and the Federal Reserve's approach, says Vladimir Pavlov, a research fellow at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies. At the same time, he notes, Warsh is a systemic functionary. When making key decisions, Warsh will be guided by economic indicators. The specifics of the Fed's operations are unlikely to encourage the new head to strictly follow Trump's views, the expert believes. Telegram | Max]
BREAKING: Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in a 54-45 vote. • • Warsh succeeds Powell, whose term ends Friday. Powell plans to stay on as governor, citing "legal attacks on the Fed." • • Warsh has signaled "regime change" plans: tighter Treasury coordination, smaller balance sheet, and a lower policy rate. First Fed meeting under his chairmanship is June 16-17.
#Wash is just one step away from becoming Fed Chair# [Inflation stickiness is intensifying! #Will Warsh cut interest rates after becoming Fed Chair?#] On Tuesday (12th), the U.S. Senate passed a key vote to approve Kevin Warsh to join the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for a 14-year term, which means he is just one step away from officially succeeding Powell as Fed Chair. Meanwhile, the Senate has begun the confirmation process for Warsh to serve a four-year term as Federal Reserve Chairman, with a vote expected as early as Wednesday (13th) local time. The market anticipates that, given the sticky nature of inflation, Warsh's appointment as Fed Chair will not fundamentally alter the Fed's monetary policy outlook. US Treasury bonds are expected to continue their steep upward trend, and the high level of risk-free interest rates will have some impact on other asset classes. With inflation stickiness intensifying, will Warsh press the rate-cutting button after taking over as Fed Chair?
BREAKING: Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Governor, on track to succeed Powell as Fed chair. Cloture vote for chair confirmation likely Wednesday; Powell's term ends Friday. • • Powell plans to stay on as governor, citing "legal attacks on the Fed which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors." • • Warsh plans "regime change": tighter Treasury coordination, smaller balance sheet, lower policy rate.
Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh says Trump didn’t order him to cut rates in heated Senate hearing
Trump Says He’ll Be Disappointed If Warsh Doesn’t Cut Rates Right Away—Ahead Of His Fed Chair Pick’s Hearing. • The former Fed governor, poised to become the wealthiest Fed chair in history, is set for a Senate hearing on his nomination Tuesday morning.
Where does the news lean?
0YES12NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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