Eurozone Annual Inflation 20262.5–2.7%
Open$8Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
YESReuters97%match28¢-82%
ECB Survey: 2026 Inflation Seen at 2.7%, Unchanged on Previous Survey, 2027 Seen at 2.2% vs 2.1%
NOFirst Squawk99%match82¢+16%
ECB'S SPF SURVEY: 2026 EURO ZONE INFLATION SEEN AT 1.8%, 2027 AT 2.0%, BOTH UNCHANGED FROM 3 MONTHS AGO
NOFinancialJuice98%match83¢+14%
ECB's Lagarde: Inflation and policy are in a good place.
YESBloomberg98%match18¢-72%
The ECB’s wage tracker predicts salaries will rise by an annual 2.7% in the fourth quarter after advancing 2.6% in the third
NOFirst Squawk98%match82¢+16%
ECB'S LAGARDE: WE EXPECT INFLATION TO STABILISE SUSTAINABLY AT OUR 2% MEDIUM TERM TARGET.
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match82¢+16%
ECB UNLIKELY TO REACT TO TEMPORARY INFLATION DIP Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the ECB is unlikely to act on a short-term drop in inflation below its 2% target, as forecasts show a rebound over the medium term. Eurozone inflation fell to 1.7% in January, but core…
Where does the news lean?
3YES7NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
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