NY-08 House Election WinnerDemocratic Party
Open$14Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 96% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES96¢
NO4¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Brad Rand defeated Representative Dan Goldman in the New York Democratic primary, ending a fierce congressional race over the Israeli-Gazette war and marking a major victory for the party's progressive wing.
Rep. Dan Goldman emphasizes Democratic party strengths and threats in concession speech
Backed by Bernie Sanders and Zohran Mamdani, Brad Lander just pulled off a major Democratic primary upset. • • The Former New York City Comptroller defeated Rep. Dan Goldman, the former federal prosecutor who served as lead counsel during the first impeachment inquiry into President Trump. • • Goldman was first elected to Congress in 2022 after winning a crowded Democratic primary in the newly redrawn district. • • The victory is being seen as a win for the Democratic Party's progressive wing in one of the bluest congressional districts in the country.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is headed back to the general election after cruising to victory in New York's Democratic primary. • • The congresswoman remains one of the Democratic Party's most prominent progressive voices, and her latest win is likely to keep attention focused on what comes next politically. • • As her national profile continues to grow, so does speculation about whether AOC could eventually pursue a bigger role on the national stage.
Where does the news lean?
6YES1NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
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