How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.00%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$7Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield has also broken the '5% barrier'.
A strong economy coupled with a sluggish bond market has led to the most intense selling pressure on US Treasuries in 18 months, with the 5-year yield breaking 5% for the first time in 19 years.
US Treasury Yields Surge to Highest Since 2007 as Bond Selloff Deepens • • US Treasury yields surged on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected US economic data, higher oil prices and weak demand at a $70 billion five-year note auction intensified the bond selloff, Bloomberg reported. The five-year yield rose above 5% for the first time since 2007, while the 10-year yield climbed nearly 17 basis points to 5.13% and the 30-year yield reached about 5.4%, both near their highest levels since 2007. The five-year auction cleared at 5.033%, more than 3 basis points above the expected level and the second-weakest result in data going back to 2018. Rate swaps now fully price in three additional 25-basis-point Fed hikes over the next year, with significant hedging for a fourth. The selloff also weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 falling 0.8%.
The yield on the benchmark 5-year US Treasury note rose above 5% for the first time in nearly two decades, amid strong US economic data that prompted investors to prepare for a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve aimed at curbing inflation. The yield on the 5-year note climbed 20 basis points on Wednesday to 5.03%, surpassing the 4.99% level recorded in 2023, at the height of the Fed's interest rate-hiking cycle to control inflation. #Arabic_Business
The yield on the 5-year US Treasury note rises to 5% for the first time since 2007
The yield on the 5-year US Treasury note rises to 5% for the first time since 2007
*FIVE-YEAR TREASURY YIELD RISES TO 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2007
YESNews93%match
*FIVE-YEAR TREASURY YIELD RISES TO 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2007
Where does the news lean?
8YES0NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
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