Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?
ResolvedOutcome: No$21Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
In China, Typhoon Dolphin made landfall in Zhejiang province. It was the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the country this year. More than a million people were evacuated from their homes, Reuters reported. The maximum sustained wind speed near the center of the cyclone was 42 meters per second, or 151 km/h. By August 10, heavy rain is forecast in Zhejiang, Shanghai, northern Fujian, and northeastern Jiangxi. The rain will cover central and southern Anhui and almost all of Jiangsu province.
About 1 million people were evacuated from their homes in Shanghai and Wenzhou in eastern China due to the most powerful tropical cyclone to hit the country this summer, Typhoon Dolphin, Reuters reports. As the agency notes, wind speeds at the center reached 42 m/s, which is equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane. Authorities evacuated personnel from offshore facilities, returned ships to ports, intensified inspections of reservoirs and landslide-prone areas, and canceled hundreds of flights. Earlier, Typhoon Dolphin made landfall in southern Japan, where about 175,000 people were ordered to evacuate. If the video doesn't load for you, you can watch it on Max.
According to the China National Meteorological Center, Typhoon Dolphin, the 13th typhoon of this year, made landfall at 5:30 p.m. Sunday, August 8, in Yuhuan, a prefecture of Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province. The maximum wind speed near the center of the typhoon when it made landfall was 42 meters per second, equivalent to a Category 14 storm, which put Dolphin in the category of a severe typhoon. Zhejiang Province raised its emergency response level to the highest level on the evening of August 8. Coastal areas also suspended work, education, business and transportation activities. As of Sunday, more than 516 million cubic meters of water had been discharged from the province's river network and more than 900 million cubic meters of water had been released from dams. Winds with a force of more than 10 gusts swept through central and northern Fujian Province, and flooding was reported in parts of low-lying areas of Shanghai. More than 1,700 flights in the Yangtze River Delta region were canceled and traffic on parts of the Hangzhou-Shenzhen and Shanghai-Kunming railway lines was suspended.
Typhoon Dolphin with wind speeds of 42 m/s makes landfall in China... At least 500,000 evacuated
Typhoon Dolphin has weakened into a severe tropical storm.
Typhoon Dolphin made landfall in Zhejiang, China, with maximum winds reaching level 14.
Typhoon Dolphin made landfall near Yuhuan, Taizhou, Zhejiang Province, with maximum sustained winds near its center reaching level 14.
China: Typhoon Dolphin is approaching the coast between Zhejiang province and Fujian province. It is expected to make landfall between August 9-10, 2026. Strong wind gusts (of up to 70mph) and heavy to torrential rainfall in coastal areas and inland are expected in Eastern China. Shanghai can also expect heavy rain and potential transportation disruptions. Travelers should expect significant disruptions to services and transportation in eastern and southeastern China during this time. Read the full alert for more information:
[Double Typhoon: Typhoon 13 (Dolphin) and Typhoon 14 (Whale)] Typhoon 13 is large and extremely powerful, with maximum instantaneous wind speeds of 60 m/s. After directly hitting Okinawa, it may not weaken much and take a sharp turn... What will its future path be? Rain and wind simulation [Japan Meteorological Agency Typhoon Information, issued 3:45 PM on the 5th]
[Typhoon Information] Large and extremely powerful Typhoon 13 (Dolphin) is expected to hit Okinawa with great force this weekend, bringing extremely strong winds that could cause houses to collapse. Typhoon 14 (Whale) has also formed. What will its future path be? [Rain and wind simulation (5th-10th)]
Where does the news lean?
6YES15NO37neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.