Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?Steve Witkoff
Open$27Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
U.S. OFFICIALS SAY NO NEW IRAN TALKS PLANNED: CBS • • U.S. officials told CBS News there are no new negotiations with Iran planned, despite President Trump's comments that talks would begin Monday. • • Officials said discussions continue through mediators involving U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and the Iranian team. • • Meanwhile, Iran said it is not negotiating directly with the U.S., insisting current talks are with Oman and focus solely on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Qatari mediators held separate talks Saturday with Araghchi, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Omani officials in an effort to secure an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. • • The talks made progress, a source with knowledge of the discussions said, though it remains unclear whether that will be enough to defuse the crisis.
Where does the news lean?
4YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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