Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$437Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
'Spider-Man 4' Beats 'Avengers'... Record-Breaking US Box Office on Opening Weekend
$360 million in one weekend: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" beats "The Avengers" and achieves the best opening weekend in North American box office history
‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day†had the biggest debut weekend of all time at the domestic box office, figures for the US and Canada show. It earned $360 million, ahead of the previous record-holder, Disney's ‘Avengers: Endgame' from 2019. •
'Spider-Man' breaks record for domestic box office debut
"Spider-Man: New Day" became one of the most successful theatrical debuts in history The film received 90% approval ratings from critics and 98% from audiences, becoming an important success for Marvel before the release of the new "Avengers." "Spider-Man: New Day" grossed $927 million at the worldwide box office, the second-best start in cinema history. During its opening weekend, the comic book film grossed $572 million outside the US, with China being its largest market at $121 million. Greg Durkin, founder and CEO of research company Enact Insight, said that the film's central themes—loneliness and isolation, as well as triumph over drama—particularly resonated with Generation Z moviegoers.
YESAPws99%match100¢
LOS ANGELES (AP) — ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ scores opening weekend record with $360 million, topping ‘Avengers: Endgame’
'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' beats out 'Avengers: Endgame' for highest domestic opening ever
'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' beats out 'Avengers: Endgame' for highest domestic opening ever
Spider-Man comes $2 million shy of Avengers record for all-time first-weekend record, already close to $1 billion global box office
"Phenomenal": Spider-Man: Brand New Day achieves the second-best opening in history
Spider-Man: Brand New Day defies superhero fatigue with record-breaking opening weekend
New Spider-Man film sees second-best global opening weekend ever
'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' chases 'Avengers: Endgame' opening record with $355 million domestic debut
'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' chases 'Avengers: Endgame' opening record with $355 million domestic debut
NOAPws97%match29¢-100%
LOS ANGELES (AP) — ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ nets biggest North American opening weekend since 'Avengers: Endgame' in 2019
Where does the news lean?
9YES7NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.