SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12Super Heavy booster explodes?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$280Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Starship just cleared hot-staging, one of the most dangerous moments of any flight. • • Super Heavy shut down at MECO, Starship ignited and pushed itself off the booster using pure engine thrust. • •
SpaceX succeeds in test flight of the new Starship generation despite engine problems
Where does the news lean?
0YES3NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
gamma-backfill
Related markets
See all outcomes for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.