3rd Largest Company end of September?SpaceX
ResolvedOutcome: No$17Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
SpaceX stock has been stuck in a narrow trading range recently, but a fresh wave of buying could arrive soon when the Nasdaq 100 makes its component weight adjustments later this month. The key factor is the combination of a little-discussed rule in the construction of this benchmark index and a series of progressively longer blackouts for Elon Musk's company shareholders, which have limited the number of shares available for trading. Nasdaq determines a company's weight in the index based on a market capitalization calculation, taking into account either its total outstanding shares or three times its free float, whichever is lower. This means that a stock with a low free float, which excludes insider-held shares or those subject to trading restrictions, will not have its full market capitalization used in calculating its weight. For SpaceX, which has a relatively small free float due to the blackout restrictions, this leaves it with a weight of 1/2 SpaceX's weighting in the Nasdaq 100 is 1.25%, making it the 19th largest company by market capitalization, though it ranks sixth in the index with over $2 trillion. This weighting is expected to increase following the upcoming index rebalancing, scheduled to be announced Friday after the market closes and take effect on September 21. This is partly due to the fact that restrictions on more than 1 billion shares have now been lifted, raising the free float to nearly 30% of SpaceX's outstanding shares, up from less than 10% immediately after its initial public offering. The company's free float could reach 2.25% after the rebalancing, which would require index funds and ETFs to purchase $15.5 billion worth of shares, according to JPMorgan estimates. Nasdaq data indicates that approximately $1.7 trillion A dollar's worth of assets tracked the Nasdaq 100 index through the end of the second quarter, according to Bloomberg. #Arabic_Business
Just when it looked like it was about to crash, ‘stock price rebounds’… SpaceX re-enters the $2 trillion market cap.
SpaceX shares plunged more than 6% on Thursday after 319 million new shares were made available for trading as part of a phased blackout schedule, which will allow trading of approximately 88% of the company's 13 billion shares by 2027. #Arabic_Business
Where does the news lean?
14YES6NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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