Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?Rafael Grossi

OpenVol$23KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 59% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES59¢
NO41¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESalhadath98%match44¢+34%
Who are the 6 candidates to succeed Guterres as UN Secretary-General? Rafael Grossi is the most prominent, and Trump prefers a famous figure outside the list The United Nations has listed 6 candidates vying for the position of the new UN Secretary-General to succeed António Guterres, whose term is ending. The 6 contenders are the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi; two-term President of Chile, Michelle Bachelet; former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Defense of Ecuador, María Fernanda Espinosa; former Vice President of Costa Rica, Rebecca Greenspan; Guyana's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Caroline Rodríguez-Birkett; and former President of Senegal for 14 years, Macky Sall. Reports indicate that US President Trump wants FIFA President Gianni Infantino to become the new UN Secretary-General. The New York Times reported A source close to Trump told Post that the US president believes Infantino "is respected by everyone around the world and has an exceptional ability to bring people together." Infantino, 56, cemented his relationship with Trump during this year's World Cup, with the Swiss official making a point of engaging him and involving him in the tournament's events. He even awarded him FIFA's first-ever Peace Prize last December.
YESRussian Media99%match53¢+11%
Experts name IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi as the most likely candidate for the post of UN Secretary General. None of the permanent members of the Security Council will veto his candidacy, according to former UN Deputy Secretary-General Sergei Ordzhonikidze. This is perhaps the most important factor in the vote, the expert notes. The new Secretary-General will have to face not only traditional UN problems like unwieldy bureaucracy, but also the US President's threats to cut funding, notes Valdai Club expert Andrey Kortunov. According to media reports, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has a chance to become a surprise candidate for the post of UN Secretary-General. This option, according to Kortunov, appears attractive to Moscow, but it could likely be considered too close to Russia. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: Who wants to become UN Secretary-General?] There are currently four candidates on the list for this post for 2027–2031. The organization's website explicitly states expectations: the new Secretary-General will be from Latin America and the Caribbean, a region informally considered "the next" in line with the principle of geographic rotation. Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi. He is 65 years old. His nomination by Argentina indicates support from libertarian President Javier Miley. Former President of Senegal Macky Sall, 64. During his presidency (2012–2024), he visited Russia five times, including for talks with Putin on Ukraine on behalf of the African Union. Essentially, he attempted to mediate between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. UN Conference on Trade and Development President Rebecca Greenspan, 70. Greenspan is an economist from Costa Rica. In 2021, she became the first woman ever to serve as Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development and facilitated the 2022 grain deal between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN. Former President of Chile and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet. 74 years old. Bachelet is a well-known socialist politician. Her father, Alberto Bachelet, was a brigadier general in the Chilean Air Force who died from torture in prison under military dictator Augusto Pinochet. Read more about the candidates in the article on our website. Dean Calma / IAEA, Christophe Viseux / COP28, Boris Baldinger / World Economic Forum Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
YESRussian Media99%match46¢+28%
Who wants to become UN Secretary General? There are currently four candidates on the list for this post for 2027–2031. The organization's website explicitly states expectations: the new Secretary-General will be from Latin America and the Caribbean, a region informally considered "the next" in line with the principle of geographic rotation. Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi. He is 65 years old. His nomination by Argentina indicates support from libertarian President Javier Miley. Former President of Senegal Macky Sall, 64. During his presidency (2012–2024), he visited Russia five times, including for talks with Putin on Ukraine on behalf of the African Union. Essentially, he attempted to mediate between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. UN Conference on Trade and Development President Rebecca Greenspan, 70. Greenspan is an economist from Costa Rica. In 2021, she became the first woman ever to serve as Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development and facilitated the 2022 grain deal between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN. Former President of Chile and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet. 74 years old. Bachelet is a well-known socialist politician. Her father, Alberto Bachelet, was a brigadier general in the Chilean Air Force who died from torture in prison under military dictator Augusto Pinochet. Dean Calma / IAEA, Christophe Viseux / COP28, Boris Baldinger / World Economic Forum Read more about the candidates in the article on our website. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: The Kremlin knows many potential candidates for the post of UN Secretary General and has a "very good" knowledge of IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said in response to a question from Vedomosti. Peskov clarified that everyone will now be conducting “very, very complex consultations” and Russia will participate in them. According to him, the Kremlin had not held any consultations regarding the candidacy of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android

Where does the news lean?

5YES1NO10neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

What would make this resolve YES?

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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