Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São PauloPablo Marçal
ResolvedOutcome: No$1Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NOReuters93%match100¢
Brazil 5-Yr Credit Default Swaps Drop 20 Basis Points From Previous Close to 113 Bps Following Bolsonaro Win in First Round of Presidental Election - S&P Global Market Intelligence
[UPDATE] Brazil’s markets surge as investors bet on Bolsonaro win (first reported at 2026-10-05T13:17:13Z)
Brazil benchmark stock index soars as Bolsonaro tops first-round vote
Brazil presidential election heads to runoff; pro-American right-winger and incumbent left-winger in a close race; economy and security measures to be key issues.
Where does the news lean?
1YES4NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.