2nd Largest Company end of September?NVIDIA
Open$13Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 8% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES8¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NVIDIA (NVDA) F2Q27 Earnings Highlights F2Q Results Slightly Exceed Expectations
- Revenue: USD 96.2 billion (+18% QoQ, +106% YoY), GF Securities 94.5 billion, Bloomberg Securities 92.3 billion, Buy-Side Advisors 94.6 billion
- Data Center Revenue: USD 89 billion
- Gross Margin: 75%, GF Securities 75.1%, Bloomberg Securities 75%
- EPS: $2.22, GF Securities $2.15, Bloomberg Securities $2.09, Buy-Side Advisors $2.18 F3Q Revenue Guidance Fully In Line with Us but Slightly Above Market Expectations, GM Slightly Below Expectations
- Revenue Guidance: USD 108±2% billion, GF Securities 108 billion, Bloomberg Securities 104 billion, Buy-Side Advisors 109 billion
- Gross margin guidance: 73.5-74.5% (official guidance: 74.0% ±50bps), GF Securities 75.1%, Bloomberg 74.8%
- Vera Rubin has shipped, F3Q is expected to contribute approximately 20% of DC revenue
- Storage costs exceeded expectations, F4Q gross margin guidance is 71-72%, rebounding to FY28 72-73% following the price increase in F1Q28
- Full-year OPEX growth is low-50s
FY28 revenue guidance exceeded expectations
- FY28 revenue is expected to increase by 70% YoY
- 70% growth is due to supply constraints, customer-forecasted demand is 100% growth
Data Center
- Hyperscale F2Q revenue $49 billion (+13% QoQ), F4Q and FY28 will see renewed acceleration
- AWS Expanded collaborations, adding 2 million GPUs to F2Q29
- ACI&E F2Q revenue of $40 billion (+25% QoQ), driven by Neoclouds capacity expansion (expected 8GW by the end of 2026)
- Sovereign AI F2Q revenue +35% QoQ, achieved through Regional NeoCloud
CPU
- Vera CPUs are now in full production, shipping to OCI, SpaceX, and AWS
- $20 billion in Server CPU demand, FY28 CPU revenue more than doubled year-on-year
Neoclouds
- Revenue-sharing model, Nvidia shares a portion of upside revenue when NeoCloud revenue exceeds guaranteed levels
- Nvidia can "Get paid twice": hardware sales + Rental Revenue Sharing
- Driving TAM expansion, bringing billions of dollars in revenue in the medium to long term
Capital return
- F2Q Buyback of $20 billion, quarterly dividend of $6 billion
- Year-to-date (YTD) reaches approximately 60% of FCF (originally planned ≥50%)
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Other Summary
- Nvidia AI Factory revenue per GW increases: Hopper approximately $18 billion/GW → Blackwell $25 billion/GW → Vera Rubin $40 billion/GW
- Networking revenue F2Q +18% QoQ, Spectrum-X Ethernet year-over-year growth of 2.6x
- Frontier AI Labs' growth exceeds its own B/S-supported investment scale, Nvidia has invested approximately $50 billion
- OpenAI commits to deploying 12GW by 2030
- Partnering with SoftBank Energy to deploy computing power at Portsmouth Campus (initial deployment 4.25GW)
- Inventory rises to $32 billion, Vera Rubin stockpiling
- DSO rises to 60-day payment period extended for large purchases by some major customers
- F2Q sales of H200 to China account for less than 1% of total DC revenue; guidance excludes China revenue
- Groq 3 LPX full production; Nebius to be the first to adopt it
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Stock Performance
- After-hours stock price rose more than 4%, driven by the company's FY28 revenue +70% YoY guidance, rapid Vera Rubin ramp-up, and optimistic CPU outlook.
Nvidia Reports Blowout Second Quarter, Forecasts 70% Revenue Growth in 2028--Update
*NVIDIA SAYS AMAZON TO DEPLOY ADDITIONAL 2 MILLION GPUS • • *NVIDIA SHARES EXTEND GAIN TO 2.9% DURING EARNINGS CALL
NVIDIA Q2 Revenue Reaches $96.2 Billion, Q3 Guidance Set at $108.0 Billion • • NVIDIA reported fiscal Q2 2027 revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year and above the $92.2 billion consensus estimate. Data Center revenue reached $89.0 billion, up 117% and above the $85.8 billion estimate, while non-GAAP diluted EPS came in at $2.22, beating expectations of $2.10. Non-GAAP gross margin was 75.0%, in line with estimates. NVIDIA guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, above the $104.2 billion consensus estimate, with the outlook assuming no Data Center compute revenue from China. The company said its Vera Rubin platform has entered full production and returned about $26.0 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and cash dividends during the quarter.
Nvidia is now almost $1 Trillion larger than every other public company • • Nvidia's $NVDA market cap has increased by more than $100 Billion so far in today's early trading
Two major reasons fueled NVIDIA's stock price surge 11% this week! Further significant positive news may emerge at the end of the month.
Where does the news lean?
9YES3NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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