Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of VictoryNo 6–9%
Open$424as of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
-3 ptsas of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
ICELAND REJECTS EU ENTRY TALKS WITH 52.8% OF VOTE VS 47.2%: RUV
Iceland refuses to resume EU accession talks: 52.8% voted against 47.2% of referendum participants voted in favor of returning to negotiations with Brussels. According to Reuters, the turnout was 82.5%. Only two districts in the center of Reykjavik supported the initiative, while the suburbs of the capital and rural regions voted against. One of the crucial issues was maintaining control over fishing waters. The fishing industry directly and indirectly provides about 15% of Iceland's GDP and 40% of its export earnings. The government argued that EU membership could protect the country from trade wars and strengthen its security amid rivalry in the Arctic. Supporters of European integration also hoped that the possible introduction of the euro would help reduce inflation and interest rates. Iceland applied to join the EU in 2009 after the financial crisis, but in 2013 the Eurosceptic government suspended negotiations. Add News.LIVE as a reliable news source on Google
Icelanders reject resuming EU accession talks by 52.8% Icelanders have rejected resuming EU accession talks Official results of the island's referendum show that 52.8% of residents rejected the move #FromTheEvent
Icelanders reject EU accession talks in referendum Iceland citizens have narrowly rejected the resumption of their country's EU membership talks, a result that is seen as a blow to Brussels' efforts to attract a wealthy and strategic member in northern Europe. The Guardian newspaper wrote in a report titled "Iceland rejects EU membership talks in referendum" that, according to the results announced by Icelandic public media, the vote count shows that opponents of resumption of EU membership talks have won. With almost all votes counted, 52.5% of voters opposed the resumption of talks and 47.5% were in favor. Only a small number of votes remained in one of the six electoral districts; A field whose results also favored the opposition and the possibility of changing the final result is considered very small. mehrnews.com/x3cWcQ @Mehrnews
Official results: 52.8% of Icelanders reject resuming EU accession negotiations
Icelanders reject resuming EU accession talks by 52.8% ======= Icelanders reject resuming EU accession talks Official results of the island's referendum show 52.8% of residents rejected the idea. From Al Arabiya
Official results: 52.8% of Icelanders reject resuming EU accession negotiations
Official results: 52.8% of Icelanders reject resuming EU accession negotiations
++ Referendum Islanda, il 52,8% dice no ai negoziati con l'Ue ++
Where does the news lean?
0YES9NO26neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 79% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.