Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?Netflix

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Odds now

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOstockmktnewz94%match99¢+1%
BILL ACKMAN JUST BOUGHT BACK INTO NETFLIX $NFLX STOCK • • Here is the full statement Ackman put out about why he made the move: • • "Netflix (NFLX) • • We acquired a position in Netflix, a business we briefly owned in 2022 and have followed closely ever since. Netflix is the dominant global streaming platform with over 325 million subscribers, nearly double the combined base of its two closest competitors, Disney+ and HBO Max. When we first invested in early 2022, investors feared an escalating content arms race among a crowded field of streaming entrants. At the same time, cash content spend substantially exceeded content amortization, weighing on free cash flow. The launch of a previously disavowed advertising tier added further uncertainty. • • Netflix has since effectively won the streaming wars. Its subscriber base now exceeds any competitor's by a wide margin, and that scale is self-reinforcing. Netflix can outspend rivals on content while spreading the cost across the industry's largest user base, improving both the value proposition for subscribers and profitability for the company. Content discipline has followed, with cash content spend growing at just a 2% annual rate since 2021 and EBIT margins expanding from 21% to approximately 31.5% today. Netflix now converts approximately 90% of earnings into free cash flow, primarily redeployed into share buybacks. Advertising has scaled rapidly toward $3 billion of revenue this year and its lower-priced ad-supported tier broadens the addressable market among price-conscious consumers, particularly in international markets. Over the last five years, Netflix has grown revenue 12%, operating profit 21%, and EPS 27% annually. • • Our opportunity arose after Netflix's share price fell ~50% from its June 2025 high of $134, de-rating from over 40 times forward earnings per share to 21 times. The decline began with prolonged uncertainty around the company's bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, which it ultimately lost in February 2026, enabling it to collect a $2.8 billion termination fee. Investor focus has since shifted to plateauing engagement trends and the longer-term risk AI-generated video poses to content creation. • • With respect to engagement, investors have been intently focused on watch time metrics without appropriately considering the quality of that watch time or the impact of geographic mix shifts. Live programming, for example, represents a small fraction of watch time yet is instrumental in driving sign-ups and retention. Investors are similarly concerned about competition from short-form video, but we view short-form video as a distinct offering from scripted content rather than a direct competitor. • • In our view, time reallocated toward short-form video is far more likely to come from share donors like linear TV or lower-quality streaming services than from a utility-like service such as Netflix. To that end, the ramp up in short-form video consumption has been most acute over the past two years yet has had no discernible impact on the company's results. On AI, we believe concerns understate the cost of generating long-form, high-quality video, which remains among the most compute-intensive AI tasks. If compute costs remain elevated, Netflix's ability to amortize content investment across the largest user base in the industry remains a highly valuable competitive advantage. Moreover, AI should meaningfully enhance the company's content recommendation engine and ad targeting capabilities. • • Looking forward, we expect Netflix to compound revenue at a double-digit growth rate, with content costs growing more slowly than revenue driving continued margin expansion. Combined with a robust buyback program, we estimate earnings should compound at close to 20% annually. We believe the company's current valuation multiple represents a substantial discount for a business with such a strong growth profile and dominant market position."
NOFox Business Reporter91%match100¢
Paramount Skydance may have won the battle — but war against Netflix is raging $PSKY • •
NOBenzinga98%match98¢+2%
Paramount Skydance Emerges As Underpriced Winner For WBD After Netflix Folds: Value Score Rises.
NOReuters Business99%match98¢+2%
WATCH: Netflix jumped more than 11% as investors applauded its decision to exit the race for Warner Bros Discovery, a months-long bidding war with Paramount Skydance for some of Hollywood's most prized assets
NOReuters99%match98¢+2%
Netflix jumped more than 11% as investors applauded its decision to exit the race for Warner Bros Discovery, a months-long bidding war with Paramount Skydance for some of Hollywood's most prized assets
NOCNBC99%match98¢+2%
WBD employees fear coming wave of job losses as Paramount tops Netflix's bid to acquire company
NOFinancialJuice98%match98¢+2%
Netflix: WBD terminates merger agreement with Netflix. PSKY pays $2.8 bln termination fee to Netflix - SEC Filing. $NFLX $PSKY
NOCGTN America98%match98¢+2%
NETFLIX INC - WBD TERMINATES MERGER AGREEMENT WITH NETFLIX - SEC FILING
NOBloomberg99%match97¢+3%
David Ellison leveraged his ties to Donald Trump and stoked fear about Netflix's influence to clinch a deal for Warner Bros.
NOThe Spectator Index99%match99¢+1%
Netflix share price up 13% after walking away from Warner Bros. deal.
NOBenzinga99%match99¢+1%
The takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery escalated into a full scale media war, ending with Netflix stepping aside and Paramount Skydance emerging as the frontrunner. Netflix declined to raise its $82.7 billion bid after WBD’s board deemed Paramount’s revised offer…
NOCNBC98%match99¢+1%
Netflix drops its WBD bid, Block layoffs, Anthropic's DOD deadline and more in Morning Squawk
NOReuters99%match99¢+1%
‘One of the advisors I spoke with said that Netflix really was reluctant to get into a sustained bidding war with one of the world's richest men.' @DawnC331 on Netflix walking away from its bid for Warner Bros. Listen now on Reuters World News
NOCNBC99%match99¢+1%
Netflix dropping its bid for Warner Bros. will spur big gains for the streaming giant, analysts say
NOReuters99%match99¢+1%
Nvidia posted a 94% jump in January-quarter sales and forecast $78 billion for the current quarter, while Paramount offered $31 a share to buy Warner Bros Discovery as Netflix backed out of its bid for the company's streaming and studio assets
NOReuters99%match99¢+1%
RT @ReutersOI: Paramount‑Skydance secures Warner Bros as Netflix bows out, while Anthropic stands firm on AI safeguards. Tune in to today…
NOReuters Business99%match99¢+1%
Nvidia posted a 94% jump in January-quarter sales and forecast $78 billion for the current quarter, while Paramount offered $31 a share to buy Warner Bros Discovery as Netflix backed out of its bid for the company's streaming and studio assets
NOBBC News (World)99%match78¢+28%
Netflix drops bid for Warner Bros, clearing way for Paramount takeover
NOCNN Breaking News99%match78¢+28%
Netflix said it has "declined to raise its offer for Warner Bros." after the Warner Bros. Discovery board determined that Paramount has submitted a "superior" offer.
NOThe Wall Street Journal99%match61¢+64%
Warner Bros. Discovery said it determined that Paramount’s revised offer to buy it is superior to the deal it has with Netflix. Netflix now has four business days to make a revised offer.

Where does the news lean?

63YES142NO28neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve according to the first entity that acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Transactions that involve only Warner Bros. Discovery's linear television networks, news channels, or other non-studio, non-streaming assets, without also transferring control of its studios and streaming businesses, will not qualify. Announcements of non-finalized arrangements — including, the currently announced Netflix agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses — will not qualify. If no entity acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None by June 30 2027". Resolution will be based on by a consensus of reporting.

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