Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)Moonshot
ResolvedOutcome: No$2Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The launch of Kimi K3, an artificial intelligence model developed by the Chinese startup Moonshot AI, reignited the debate about China's ability to overcome its limited access to advanced chips and match the performance of US models. Operating similarly to GPT and Claude, this system represented a breakthrough with the potential to transform a sector previously dominated by the United States.
China's Moonshot Unveils New AI 'Kimi K3'... Closely Chasing OpenAI and Antropic
A NEW AI MODEL FROM CHINA JUST GOT WALL STREET WORRIED • • Moonshot's new Kimi K3 model claims to rival the strongest offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic, and investors are already calling it a new "Kimi moment" similar to last years "DeepSeek moment" per Bloomberg. • • The fear isn't really about Kimi K3 itself. It's what one portfolio manager called the capex domino effect: if US firms lean more on Chinese models and less on Western labs, spending on the most advanced chips could slow. • • Moonshot priced K3 at roughly the same level as Anthropic's Sonnet, a premium versus other Chinese models, betting on capability over pure cost. • • Artificial Analysis reportedly ranked K3 ahead of Anthropic's Opus 4.8 on some frontier benchmarks, the first Chinese open-weight model to hit that mark.
Where does the news lean?
15YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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