Kimi K3 releasedJuly 31
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$6Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The Dark Side of the Moon has released a new model, the Kimi K3, and plans to fully open-source it by the end of this month. The company states that the Kimi K3 has 2.8 trillion parameters that drive decisions, making it the world's largest open-source model to date.
Moonshot AI’s New Kimi K3 Challenges U.S. Frontier Models
Kimi K3 combines strong 3D reasoning, coding, and vision capabilities to turn concepts, images, and videos into fully playable interactive experiences. • • Kimi K3 achieves true "vision in the loop" by seamlessly iterating between code and live screenshots
Introducing Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence • • 2.8 Trillion Parameters, 1 Million Context, Native Multimodal • Kimi Delta Attention enables up to 6.3x faster decoding in million-token contexts • Attention Residuals deliver ~25% higher training efficiency at <2% additional cost • Built for long-horizon agentic coding and self-evolving workflows • • Kimi K3 is now live on on Kimi Work, Kimi Code, and the Kimi API. • Open Weights by July 27, 2026. • • API: • Tech blog:
Kimi K3 combines strong 3D reasoning, coding, and vision capabilities to turn concepts, images, and videos into fully playable interactive experiences. • • Kimi K3 achieves true "vision in the loop" by seamlessly iterating between code and live screenshots.
Meet Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence • • 2.8 Trillion Parameters, 1 Million Context, Native Multimodal • Kimi Delta Attention enables up to 6.3x faster decoding in million-token contexts • Attention Residuals deliver ~25% higher training efficiency at <2% additional cost • Built for long-horizon agentic coding and self-evolving workflows • • Kimi K3 is now live on on Kimi Work, Kimi Code, and the Kimi API. • • Open Weights by July 27, 2026. • • API: • Tech blog:
YESReuters95%match98¢+2%
Moonshot is Scheduled to Release Kimi K3, China’s Largest AI Model to Date with 2tn-3tn Parameters, in the Coming Days-FT
Where does the news lean?
7YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for Kimi K3 released — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.