Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryStevens 15%+
ResolvedOutcome: No$976as of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
50 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Reps. Craig and Stevens losing in their primaries definitely rhymes -- Two 2018ers who flipped House seats falling to more progressive candidates • • But the swing in the actual makeup of Senate Democratic Caucus would be far more pronounced in Michigan if Abdul El-Sayed wins • • Michigan would go from centrist Peters to progressive AES (Peters endorsed Stevens over AES) • • Minnesota would go from progressive Smith to progressive Flanagan (Smith endorsed Flanagan over Craig)
Live: Stevens says El-Sayed has her 'full support' against Mike Rogers in Michigan
Stevens concedes and endorses El-Sayed for November after their contentious primary. She says: “He is a doctor, a community health official, a Rhodes Scholar, and a dedicated Michigander. I am proud to offer my support as he takes on Mike Rogers in the general election.”
Live: Stevens backs El-Sayed, pledges to support him vs. Mike Rogers
Live: While El-Sayed’s victory was narrow, it indicates serious Democratic discontent with the political establishment that backed Representative Haley Stevens and is a warning sign for the party overall.
Live: Stevens concedes; Abdul El-Sayed projected winner
Stevens concedes, endorses El-Sayed
Live: El-Sayed campaign says Stevens conceded in Michigan Senate Democratic primary
Live: Stevens trails El-Sayed by fewer than 15,000 votes
DDHQ Race Update (est. 99% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 739,310 • (48.5%) • Haley Stevens (D): 723,430 • (47.5%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 61,120 • (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: El-Sayed and Stevens race too close to call, AP reports
Live: US representative Haley Stevens , who is currently trailing in the Democratic primary for Senate in Michigan , has cast herself throughout her campaign as a pra
DDHQ Race Update (est. 96% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 724,468 (48.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 703,595 (47.3%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 60,053 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 93% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 709,609 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 684,482 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 58,357 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 92% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 700,566 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 673,364 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 57,419 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 91% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 694,487 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 668,850 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 56,955 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 90% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 689,121 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 663,207 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 56,343 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 90% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 682,240 (48.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 661,480 (47.3%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 56,308 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 89% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 682,096 (49.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 655,591 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 55,894 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 88% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 674,071 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 644,431 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 55,023 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 88% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 667,902 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 642,612 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 54,974 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 85% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 647,616 (49.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 621,736 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 53,156 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 84% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 639,643 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 615,767 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 52,300 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 624,237 (49.2%) • Haley Stevens (D): 595,334 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 50,495 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 81% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 618,675 (49.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 587,295 (46.8%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 49,816 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 79% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 604,726 (49.2%) • Haley Stevens (D): 575,703 (46.8%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 48,864 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 78% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 600,241 (49.5%) • Haley Stevens (D): 565,113 (46.6%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 48,072 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 78% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 597,965 (49.5%) • Haley Stevens (D): 563,041 (46.6%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 47,890 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 77% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 591,793 (49.6%) • Haley Stevens (D): 554,421 (46.5%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 47,209 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 75% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 581,500 (49.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 542,570 (46.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 46,136 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 74% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 575,411 • (49.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 536,799 • (46.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 45,502 • (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 74% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 575,172 (49.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 536,547 (46.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 45,484 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 69% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 534,600 (50.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 491,656 (46.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 41,702 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 68% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 527,754 (50.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 487,371 (46.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 40,904 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 64% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 499,463 (50.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 460,366 (46.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 38,316 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 58% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 445,896 (49.8%) • Haley Stevens (D): 416,348 (46.5%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 33,841 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 55% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 417,975 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 401,487 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 32,601 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
MICHIGAN: • • Now it is tighter. • • El-Sayed: 49.4% • Stevens: 46.8% • • With 57% of results in
DDHQ Race Update (est. 54% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 414,209 (49.6%) • Haley Stevens (D): 388,993 (46.6%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 31,291 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 47% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 361,821 (49.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 339,441 (46.6%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 27,525 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 44% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 339,476 (50.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 310,618 (46.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 25,079 (3.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 42% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 325,492 (50.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 298,172 (46.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 23,867 (3.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 38% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 294,710 (50.2%) • Haley Stevens (D): 270,558 (46.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 21,589 (3.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: Race between El-Sayed and Stevens tightening
A close one between El-Sayed and Stevens with 31pct of the vote in • • A long way to go here in #MISEN Dem primary...
DDHQ Race Update (est. 30% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Haley Stevens (D): 226,448 (48.4%) • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 224,061 (47.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 17,269 (3.7%) • • Haley Stevens leads for the first time. • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 24% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 189,626 (51.2%) • Haley Stevens (D): 167,718 (45.3%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 13,157 (3.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
MICHIGAN early returns. • • 18% of the estimated vote is in. • • El-Sayed: 52.3% • Stevens: 44.5% • •
DDHQ previews 11 big primaries happening tomorrow! Click the link in reply for more. • • The main event is the #MISen Dem primary between Abdul El-Sayed & Rep. Haley Stevens. • • Stevens's side has outspent El-Sayed's $64m to $7m, per @AdImpact_Pol. But El-Sayed leads polls 53%-40%.
New internal for pro-El-Sayed #MISen super PAC, with trends from before McMorrow quit: • • El-Sayed: 56% (+15) • Stevens: 40% (+17) • • Tulchin (super PAC pollster) had found the McMorrow vote splitting, not all going to Stevens. What's extra interesting here is that El-Sayed is viewed much more favorably among Dem primary voters: 69/17 to 54/34.
Where does the news lean?
13YES76NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
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