Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026Gold
Open$277Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 31% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES31¢
NO70¢
as of
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Bitcoin posted its strongest weekly gains in over three years, surging 23%. But the rally, fueled by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bisnett's actions, revived a question older than the surge itself: What truly gives Bitcoin its value? The idea of digital gold is facing a tough test. Gold rose by more than 7% in 2026, while Bitcoin remained down by about 10% despite its recent rebound. Has Bitcoin become a genuine financial asset, or is it still essentially a speculative tool searching for a narrative to justify its price? @maykhadra_bn #Arabic_Business
Gold surprises everyone; the yellow metal surpasses $4,600 today. The rise isn't because the world prefers gold in times of uncertainty, but because investors have begun to fear the dollar. The Treasury Department has started buying long-term bonds heavily to lower yields, but the market interpreted the move as a signal of future currency weakness. Gold ETFs saw their largest inflows since last January. The battle today is no longer between gold and the dollar, but between confidence and fear. Will the rise continue if the dollar doesn't recover? @mayaj_bn #Arabic_Business
Gold hits 6-week highs on China demand as Bitcoin ignores fresh S&P 500 record
YESBloomberg99%match60¢-48%
Gold has long attracted older, risk-adverse investors. Now, a new crop of investors is playing catch up
YESPolymarket99%match57¢-46%
[Replying to @spectatorindex] @spectatorindex 72% chance Gold outperforms Bitcoin in 2026. >
YESThe Spectator Index98%match57¢-46%
Gold has now overtaken the US Dollar as the world's top reserve asset.
YESBloomberg98%match50¢-38%
Once pitched as “digital gold” and a higher-octane counterpart to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, Bitcoin now lags all three over the past five years after its recent ferocious rout
YESCNBC99%match50¢-38%
Gold bulls hold firm after historic metals sell-off — but silver could be in for a bumpier ride
YESCNBC99%match55¢-44%
Gold and silver extend rebound but concerns over volatility linger
YESCNBC99%match45¢-31%
Gold and silver rebound after historic wipeout as analysts say thematic drivers stay intact
YESPolymarket99%match47¢-34%
BREAKING: Gold has officially outperformed Bitcoin over the past 5 years.
YESJoe Weisenthal99%match47¢-34%
Wow. Gold has now outperformed Bitcoin on a 5-year basis
YESBloomberg99%match37¢-16%
Gold and silver dipped after surging to records in the previous session as investors piled into commodities as an alternative to other financial assets
YESCNBC99%match37¢-16%
Gold, silver are smashing records to start 2026 after last year's big run. Why it's happening again
YESzerohedge99%match37¢-16%
Gold remains the primary safe haven, but silver plays the same role — just with more beta
Where does the news lean?
22YES1NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans YES at 51% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset.
The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles).
The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch.
The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance.
The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/.
If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin).
Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied.
If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used.
If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.
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