Will gas hit __ by end of August?↓ $3.90
Open$597as of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
ENERGY COULD REIGNITE INFLATION IN AUGUST • • Falling energy prices helped cool July inflation, with gasoline down 2.9% M/M and fuel oil falling 1.7%. • • But that relief may be temporary. • • Rising crude prices and strong refining margins are already pushing fuel costs higher. • • U.S. gasoline now averages $4.03 per gallon, up from $3.87 a month ago, suggesting energy could put renewed upward pressure on August inflation.
Live: Gasoline similarly fell 2.9 percent from June but prices have increased nearly 25 percent over the past year. Prices at the pump reflect this surge: The average price of regular gas stood at $4.04 per gallon as of Wednesday, almost a dollar more than the $3.14 it was a year ago, according to AAA.
Where does the news lean?
1YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
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