How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13?<100
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$46Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Hormuz tanker crossings slip to lowest in more than two months, data shows
Bloomberg reported that Sinopec Group, the world's largest owner of supertankers, is trying to convince ship crews to pass through the Strait of Hormuz by offering the equivalent of six months' extra pay. Bloomberg previously reported that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt after two ships operated by Greek shipping company Dynacom were attacked. Bloomberg also reported that ship owners and crews are hiding their locations in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid attacks; therefore, the true extent of traffic in the waterway may not be known for weeks or months.
The Strait Of Hormuz Is Caught In The Crossfire Again. Traffic Has Plummeted By Two Thirds. • Tankers are increasingly avoiding the Strait of Hormuz since hostilities between the U.S. and Iran resumed, according to new data.
Shipping transits slow to a trickle as Strait of Hormuz faces “worst-case scenario”
According to Bloomberg, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ground to a halt after two ships operated by the Greek shipping company Dynacom were attacked. Ship owners and crews in the Strait of Hormuz are hiding their locations to avoid attacks, so the true extent of traffic in the waterway may not be known for weeks or months, Bloomberg reported.
Bloomberg reported that ship owners and crews in the Strait of Hormuz are hiding their locations to avoid attack; therefore, the true extent of traffic in the waterway may not be known for weeks or months.
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slumped since U.S. President Donald Trump’s blockade took effect last week, with shipowners increasingly avoiding one of the world’s most important energy corridors as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensifies. • • Crossings through the Strait have fallen sharply across multiple shipping datasets with renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, Tehran’s declaration of a blanket ban on maritime traffic and fresh attacks on commercial vessels has prompted operators to reassess the risks. • • Read more on CNBC:
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed; only 4 ships passed through overnight Reuters, citing data from LSEG, announced that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a very low level over the weekend. According to the report, only 4 ships passed through this route on Sunday. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
London Stock Exchange Group: Only 3 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday as US strikes against Iran escalate
Reuters, citing shipping data: The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz remained low over the weekend amid ongoing escalation.
Reuters: Shipping data showed that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz remained low over the weekend due to intensified attacks by the United States and the Islamic Republic.
According to CNN, data from Marine Traffic shows that at least 13 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours; of these, eight entered the Persian Gulf, including six cargo ships and two oil tankers. Five ships also left the strait, including three oil tankers and two cargo ships.
Marine Traffic: No ships using Omani route through Strait of Hormuz The risk in the Strait of Hormuz has become more severe despite a slight increase in transits. Vessel activity in the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly on July 14, with 21 confirmed transits recorded. No ships are using the Omani route, while ship traffic continues to use the route approved by Iran, highlighting the decline in confidence in the alternative route. Renewed security threats, legal and geopolitical uncertainty have complicated the situation for seafarers.
Brent crude oil prices hit a new monthly high, exceeding $87.50 per barrel during trading on July 14. The closing price of $84.00 is 17% higher than the beginning of the month. Active military action between the US and Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have revived bullish sentiment. Analysts expect continued high volatility, which, in the absence of an agreement, could push oil prices to $100 per barrel, given that US reserves have fallen to their lowest level since mid-2003. Investors also bet on higher stock prices for Russian oil companies. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Where does the news lean?
26YES2NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 13, 2026, through July 19, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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