Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz liftedJune 30
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$4.2Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
16 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency said on Saturday that the Strait of Hormuz will remain under Iranian management, rejecting Donald Trump’s claim that the waterway would be reopened as part of a draft agreement under negotiation.
IRGC-owned Fars News: • """ • Trump's Claim Regarding the Return of the Strait of Hormuz to its Previous State Is Baseless • • According to Fars News Agency, despite Donald Trump's recent claim on "Truth Social" that the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous condition and that an agreement is being prepared for signing, investigations by Fars reporters indicate that this assertion is unsubstantiated. • • Based on the latest exchanged communications, should a potential agreement be reached, the Strait of Hormuz will remain under Iranian management. • • Although Iran has agreed to allow the number of passing vessels to return to pre-war levels, this by no means signifies "free passage" to the pre-war status. • • Consequently, the management of the strait, including route determination, timing, passage procedures, and permit issuance, will remain exclusively under the discretion and management of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, Trump's claim in this regard is flawed and does not align with reality. • • It is worth noting that Trump had previously declared negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program as one of the primary and inseparable conditions for any agreement. However, no commitment has been made by Iran, and the nuclear file has not been discussed at this stage. • • American officials have reportedly acknowledged in numerous messages to Iran that Trump's tweets are primarily promotional and intended for media consumption within the United States, advising against paying attention to these statements. • • """
Trump just now: Reaching a "preliminary agreement" with Iran Just had a very good call with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, the Pakistani army chief, the King of Jordan, and the presidents of Egypt and Turkey regarding Iran Discussed with regional leaders the wording of the memorandum of understanding with Iran to achieve peace Called the Israeli prime minister regarding the memorandum of understanding with Iran We are currently discussing the final aspects and details of the agreement with Iran The agreement with Iran includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz Details of the agreement with Iran will be announced very soon
US President Trump announced on his Truth Social account that they are close to an agreement with Iran — A large-scale agreement has been negotiated between the US, Iran, and other countries on the list, with the aim of finalizing it. — The final elements and details of the agreement are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly. — In addition to other elements of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will also be opened.
President Trump Now: A deal has been largely drafted, subject to final completion, between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other countries noted. Separately, I also had a conversation with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of Israel, which also went well. The final aspects and details of the deal are now being discussed, and will be announced soon. In addition to many other elements of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.
Trump says peace deal with Iran largely reached with strait of Hormuz to open
Trump: The agreement includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, along with several other provisions. #Jordan #JordanianTV
Trump just now: Reaching a "preliminary agreement" with Iran Just had a very good call with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, the Pakistani army chief, the King of Jordan, and the presidents of Egypt and Turkey regarding Iran Discussed with regional leaders the wording of the memorandum of understanding with Iran to achieve peace Called the Israeli prime minister regarding the memorandum of understanding with Iran We are currently discussing the final aspects and details of the agreement with Iran The agreement with Iran includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz Details of the agreement with Iran will be announced very soon
US President Donald Trump announced that a new agreement with Iran has been largely negotiated, with the final aspects and details currently being discussed ahead of an imminent official announcement. • • As part of the diplomatic effort, Trump said he spoke with leaders of several Muslim-majority nations and noted that a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went well. • • Among many other elements of the impending deal, the agreement will ensure that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened, said Trump. • • #Iran #WarOnIran #UnitedStates #Trump #AlMayadeen
Trump: . I just had a very good call with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, the Pakistani army chief, the King of Jordan, and the presidents of Egypt and Turkey regarding Iran.
. Most of the agreement with Iran has been negotiated.
. The details and final aspects of the Iran agreement are currently being discussed and will be announced soon.
. The agreement with Iran includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
. I had a very good call with Netanyahu.
President Trump says an agreement with Iran has been largely negotiated: “Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”
THERE IS A 60% TRUMP ANNOUNCES THE LIFTING OF THE US BLOCKADE OF HORMUZ BY JUNE 30, PER POLYMARKET: ...
BREAKING: Iranian armed forces have exchanged 'limited fire' with US forces in the Strait of Hormuz for past two hours, according to Iranian semi-official news agencies.
US Central Command spokesperson to Al Jazeera: Our forces are focused on tightening the blockade on #Iranian ports and supporting the Freedom Project
Trump reaffirms that the United States has "total control" of the Strait of Hormuz
Prediction markets currently think there is a less than 50% chance the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz ends by June 30th - Polymarket
Where does the news lean?
43YES145NO146neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
gamma-backfill
Related markets
See all outcomes for Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.