Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Open$21Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 53% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES53¢
NO47¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Almost 70% chance Democrats win the Maine senate race. • •
Where does the news lean?
2YES1NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 91%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.