Core PCE MoM - July 20260.2%
Resolved$9Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
GOLDMAN SEES CORE PCE AT 0.23% • • Goldman Sachs expects July core PCE to rise 0.23% M/M, slightly above core CPI and consensus. • • Portfolio management fees are expected to add 8 bps, reflecting Q2 equity gains. • • Goldman says upcoming methodology changes could create volatility in PCE readings and lower annual core inflation. • • The bank expects core inflation near 0.2% in August and sees the Fed holding rates steady through year-end.
Live: The benign 0.2 percent monthly increase in core inflation will give the Fed a bit more breathing room as it debates whether or not to raise rates in September. A higher monthly pace than that would have likely elicited greater concern that price pressures were staying stubbornly sticky and would not ease without the central bank taking some action to tamp down inflation. This report will help to bolster the view held by many officials that inflation — once temporary factors caused by the war-induced energy spike, for example, fade — will continue to trend down as the year progresses, barring another shock.
Where does the news lean?
2YES0NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
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