Core CPI YoY - June 2026≤2.4%
ResolvedOutcome: No$711as of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
"Expecting a headline number to be negative...this is 4X more negative!" • • CPI fell by 0.4% in June, the largest decline since April 2020—and below the forecast of every single Bloomberg economist. • • Core inflation also came in better than expected, falling to 2.6% year-over-year.
Core CPI *declined* in June, falling -0.02% and reducing the 12-month rate to 2.6%. • • Headline CPI also fell, and by a larger-than-expected -0.42%, lowering the 12-month rate to 3.5%.
Where does the news lean?
1YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
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