Best AI model on August 1?claude-opus-4-6
ResolvedOutcome: No$7Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Try Opus 5 today. Use “claude-opus-5” on the Claude API, or run “/model claude-opus-5” in Claude Code. • •
To upgrade existing workloads to Opus 5, run `/claude-api migrate` in Claude Code. • • The built-in claude-api skill updates your model strings and suggests prompt improvements that are tuned for Opus 5.
Opus 5 defaults to high effort in Claude Code and Claude Platform. Turn it up for your hardest problems, or down for faster, cheaper turns. • • Fast mode is also available: ~2.5x faster at 2x base price, on the Claude Platform and in Claude Code via extra usage.
Opus 5 is available today on all paid plans and the Claude API, priced the same as Opus 4.8. Itâ€s the default model on Claude Max, and the strongest on Claude Pro. Itâ€s also offered in Fast mode, which runs around 2.5× the default speed. • • Read more:
Where does the news lean?
0YES4NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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See all outcomes for Best AI model on August 1? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.