China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?4.3-4.6%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$75Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
35 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
China falls short of economic growth targets China's gross domestic product grew 4.3 percent in the April-June quarter, down from 5 percent in the first quarter, falling short of China's full-year target of 4.5 to 5 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. @YjcNewsChannel
China's Q2 Economic Growth at 4.3%... Lowest Since 2022
China's GDP expanded 4.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, the slowest pace since 2022, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. ING economist Lynn Song pointed to a "significant slowdown" compared to the first quarter. "While monthly activity data is not directly converted into a contribution to GDP, we see fixed asset investment slipping further into negative territory year-on-year, while retail sales are barely holding on to positive territory" (quoted by the Financial Times). In May, Bloomberg and Reuters reported that China's economic growth had slowed across the board, with investment inflows beginning to decline again as export growth no longer offsets declining domestic consumption. RBC Channel on Max RBC App for iOS and Android
China recorded its weakest growth rate in over three years, at 4.3% in the second quarter, weighed down by domestic demand (its oil imports remain historically low).
China: Growth slowed to 4.3% in the second quarter, but indicators improved in June
Despite strong exports, China's GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-on-year in the second quarter. However, China is still on track to achieve its revised full-year growth target of 4.5%-5.0%. Meanwhile, Chinese house prices continued to fall in June, although the rate of decline narrowed.
China’s first-half economic growth rate 4.7%… Q2 at 4.3%, lowest since late 2022 (Roundup)
China's GDP grew 4.3% in the April-June quarter, supported by increased exports despite a decline in domestic consumption.
China's GDP grew 4.3% in the April-June quarter, but the slowdown in the economy is becoming clearer.
China's GDP slows; growth in the April-June quarter was 4.3%, falling short of the government's full-year target, due to the turmoil in the Middle East.
China's Q2 GDP grew at +4.3%, falling short of its target and slowing from +5.0% in January-March.
CHINA 2Q GDP GROWS 4.3% Y/Y; EST. +4.5% • • CHINA JAN.-JUNE FIXED INVESTMENT FALLS 5.7% Y/Y; EST. -5% • • CHINA JUNE RETAIL SALES RISE 1% Y/Y; EST. -0.1% • • CHINA JUNE INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 5.3% Y/Y; EST. +4.6%
China's GDP for the April-June quarter grew by a significant 4.3% year-on-year, a sharp slowdown in growth rate, due to a slump in consumption caused by the real estate recession and the worsening situation in the Middle East.
China's Q2 GDP Growth at 4.3%... Slightly Below Forecast
China reports 4.3% per cent GDP growth in second quarter
ALERT: China says economy grew 4.3% on-year in Q2, below forecast
[Breaking] China's Q2 GDP Growth at 4.3%... Falls Below Forecast
China GDP (Q/Q) Q2: 0.9% (est 0.9%; prev 1.3%) • • - GDP (Y/Y): 4.3% (est 4.5%; prev 5.0%)
China posts slowest GDP growth since 2022 at 4.3%, missing expectations
China's GDP growth rate slows sharply to 4.3% in second quarter
NONews99%match3¢-100%
China's GDP Grew by 4.7% in the First Half of 2026 - State Bureau of Statistics
[Breaking News] China's real GDP growth rate for April-June increased by 4.3% year-on-year.
[Breaking News] China's GDP growth slows to 4.3% in April-June, falling short of its full-year target.
NOdbnews99%match3¢-100%
*CHINA 2Q GDP YTD GREW 4.7% Y/Y; EST. +4.5%
China's GDP grew 4.3% in the April-June quarter, but the high-tech industry performed well, though the growth slowed.
NONews99%match4¢-100%
*CHINA 2Q GDP GROWS 4.3% Y/Y; EST. +4.5%
China's real GDP grew 4.3% in the April-June quarter, but growth slowed due to soaring material prices originating in the Middle East.
TASS: CHINA'S GDP GROWTH RATE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR AMOUNTED TO 4.7% - STATE STATISTICS
*CHINA 2Q GDP GREW 0.9% Q/Q; EST. +0.9% *CHINA 2Q GDP GREW 4.3% Y/Y; EST. +4.5%
China's GDP grew 4.3% in the April-June quarter, a slowdown from the previous quarter, as consumer spending remains sluggish.
YESNews99%match96¢+4%
China's GDP for the April-June quarter grew 4.3% year-on-year.
China’s Q2 GDP growth slows to 4.3% y/y, misses market forecast
YESReuters99%match96¢+4%
China Q2 2026 GDP +4.3 % Y/Y (Reuters Poll +4.5%)
NOdbnews99%match4¢-100%
*CHINA 2Q GDP GREW 4.3% Y/Y; EST. +4.5%
YESReuters99%match38¢+163%
Reuters Poll-China Q2 GDP Growth Forecast at 4.5% Y/Y (vs 4.7% in April Poll), vs 5.0% in Q1
Where does the news lean?
27YES14NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
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