Berlin State Election: 4th PlaceCDU
ResolvedOutcome: No$3Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Elections in Germany: CDU may not enter the state parliament for the first time in 80 years "This means that the CDU will not be in the new state parliament, since the party did not overcome the five percent barrier required to enter it," the report says. As noted, this is the party's worst result in the entire history of Germany. Subscribe to Ukrinform | Facebook | X | YouTube
Merz's party has lost the third state election in 2 weeks: the CDU has been eliminated from the regional parliament for the first time
The worst result was in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union received only 4.9% compared to 13.3% in 2021 and did not overcome the five-percent threshold. This is the first time in history that the CDU has not entered the parliament of one of the German states, and the party's worst result in state elections since 1949, reports Tagesschau.
In the Berlin elections, which took place on the same day, the CDU received 18.8% compared to 28.2% in 2023 and came in second place after the Left Party. The current coalition of the CDU and the SPD has lost its majority. Two weeks earlier, support for the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt had fallen from 37.1% to 17.2%. The far-right Alternative for Germany won there with a record 43.8%. Thus, in the last three state elections, Merz's party lost between 8.4 and 19.9 percentage points of support compared to its previous result. Add News.LIVE as a reliable news source on Google
Historic debacle! At 00:04, the CDU was finally ousted from the state parliament.
Berlin election: Left Party wins state parliament election – CDU in second place
Where does the news lean?
1YES5NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
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