LA-05 Republican Primary WinnerBlake Miguez
Open$32Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Scoop — WH officials alerted Louisiana Republicans in calls this week that Blake Miguez, whom President Trump backed in Feb to run in the 5th District, is making moves to run in the newly redrawn 6th. • • Miguez is facing resurfaced allegations of sexually assaulting a woman in 2007, which he denies. • • The WH political team also said in those calls they told Miguez in a recent meeting that he would not immediately have the president’s endorsement to enter the race for the 6th. He would still have Trump’s endorsement for the 5th. • • Miguez then indicated he would still push ahead to run in the 6th. His campaign website is now locked and password protected. • • White House officials will continue to assess the race — where State. Sen. Rick Edmonds, Speaker Mike Johnson’s former pastor, and several other Republicans are either already in or taking steps to run. • • The 5th is increasingly crowded. • • Louisiana’s filing deadline is Aug. 7. • • via @politico
Where does the news lean?
0YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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