Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

OpenVol$263KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES7¢
NO93¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOtheglobeandmail.com95%match92¢+1%
Smith says Alberta could have a binding referendum on secession in early 2027

Where does the news lean?

1YES1NO2neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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