Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 3rd PlaceAfD
ResolvedOutcome: No$946as of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
In the end: The right-wing AfD party was 3 seats short of an absolute majority (they won 39 out of 42). Apparently: They have the option of forming a coalition with the far-left BSW party Currently: The AfD party has signaled that it is not interested in a coalition [in reply to: For the first time since World War II, a far-right party will head a state in Germany The results of the election models for the local parliament of the state of Saxony-Anhalt in Germany show that the right-wing AfD party received about 44.5% of the total vote, more than 2 times the percentage of votes received by the CDU party of the current German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Currently: It is not 50% - which would have allowed it to govern without a coalition]
Assaf Rosenzweig
Elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt in Germany: The far-right AfD party won 39 seats, just three short of the number needed to achieve an absolute majority in the local parliament. It will try to hold talks with other parties, which in turn have repeated that they will not sit in government with it. The CDU party, the conservative right of Chancellor Merz, which won 17% of the vote, has also made it clear that it will not sit with the left, so any political scenario now looks very complex and is expected to include tedious talks for all sides
Where does the news lean?
0YES3NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes received (Zweitstimme), with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Related markets
See all outcomes for Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 3rd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.