Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryEl-Sayed 25%+
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After a race decided by just 1%, Egyptian-American physician Abdulrahman El-Sayed (Abdul) secured the Democratic Party's nomination for the Senate from Michigan, defeating his AIPAC-backed opponent, Representative Haley Stevens, and moving closer to becoming the first Muslim senator in the history of Congress.
Abdul-Sayed, a left-wing politician, physician, and former health official, won the Democratic primary for the Michigan Senate seat. He defeated moderate Congresswoman Haley Stevens by less than 15,000 votes and will face Republican candidate Mike Rogers, an ally of Donald Trump, in the final election. If he wins, he will become the first Muslim to serve in the U.S. Senate. Abdul-Sayed had emphasized economic reforms and the implementation of a universal health care plan during his campaign. Reported by Marzieh Hosseini, Iran International correspondent
Left-wing insurgent Abdul El-Sayed calls for Democratic unity after narrowly defeating the party establishment's candidate in Michigan and claiming the nomination for one of November's most important US Senate races •
Progresista Abdul El-Sayed gana primarias demócratas en Michigan y disputará escaño clave al Senado • • El médico de 41 años venció por menos de 15.000 votos a la moderada Haley Stevens y se enfrentará al republicano Mike Rogers en noviembre en un estado decisivo para el control de la Cámara Alta. • • ¿Logrará el ala progresista demócrata inclinar la balanza del Senado en un estado históricamente disputado? • •
Trump called him a communist and an enemy of Israel... Who is Abdel Rahman El-Sayed, winner of the Senate primary in America? ====== Dr. Abdel Rahman El-Sayed (41 years old), of Egyptian origin, achieves a prominent victory in the Democratic Party primaries in Michigan, becoming its official candidate for the US Senate. El-Sayed is of Egyptian descent, specifically from the city of Alexandria in northern Egypt. He was born in Michigan in 1984 after his parents immigrated to the United States. Abdel Rahman El-Sayed narrowly defeated his prominent rival, Representative Haley Stevens, in the primaries to secure the party's nomination. He began his career in various fields of medicine and public health after receiving a high-level academic education at Columbia, Michigan, and Oxford universities. He held prominent leadership positions, most notably serving as Director of Public Health for the city of Detroit, Michigan. He is active in the media field. The analyst, as a podcast creator and host, and a political and medical commentator on CNN, focused his campaign on issues including a comprehensive overhaul of the healthcare system and the adoption of economic policies to achieve social justice and support the middle and working classes. He adopted a prominent political stance within his platform, directly calling for a halt to US military aid to Israel. In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump described Abdul Rahman as a "communist" and "a loser who hates Jews and Israel."
Trump called him a communist and an enemy of Israel... Who is Abdel Rahman El-Sayed, winner of the Senate primary in America? ====== Dr. Abdel Rahman El-Sayed (41 years old), of Egyptian origin, achieves a prominent victory in the Democratic Party primaries in Michigan, becoming its official candidate for the US Senate. El-Sayed is of Egyptian descent, specifically from the city of Alexandria in northern Egypt. He was born in Michigan in 1984 after his parents immigrated to the United States. Abdel Rahman El-Sayed narrowly defeated his prominent rival, Representative Haley Stevens, in the primaries to secure the party's nomination. He began his career in various fields of medicine and public health after receiving a high-level academic education at Columbia, Michigan, and Oxford universities. He held prominent leadership positions, the most important of which was managing the public health department in the city of Detroit, Michigan. He was active in the media and analytical field as a podcast creator and host, and a political and medical commentator on CNN. His election platform focused on issues including a comprehensive overhaul of the healthcare system and the adoption of economic policies to achieve social justice and support the middle and working classes. He adopted a prominent political stance within his platform, directly calling for a halt to US military aid to Israel. In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump described Abdul Rahman as a "communist" and "a loser who hates Jews and Israel." From Al Arabiya
EL-SAYED WINS. • • The AP has now called the MI Senate primary for former public health director Abdul El-Sayed. • • He won by just a point. • • W/ 99% reporting: • El-Sayed 48.5% • Stevens 47.5% • • McMorrow, who dropped out, got 4%, enough to have decided the race. • • This is a narrow but major progressive victory (alongside MI07) in a purple state.
Michigan is still counting. • • Far-left candidate Abdul El-Sayed holds a razor-thin lead over Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat — a race many expected progressives to win decisively. • • With Michigan's largest county still tallying votes, El-Sayed is clinging to a one-point advantage in what has become a key test for the Democratic Party. • • The contest is being closely watched as the party's progressive wing looks to prove its message can resonate beyond deep-blue strongholds and into the political battlegrounds of Middle America. • • @richedson has the latest.
Republicans Eye Michigan Flip as El-Sayed Barely Edges Stevens in Dem Primary After Massive Polling Miss, Weak Showing With Black Voters
DDHQ Race Update (est. 99% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 739,310 • (48.5%) • Haley Stevens (D): 723,430 • (47.5%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 61,120 • (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: Mallory McMorrow, the Democrat who dropped out of the Michigan Senate race a month ago, has received more votes than the gap between Dr. Abdul El-Sayed and Representative Haley Stevens. With more than 1.5 million ballots counted, McMorrow had nearly 61,000 votes, while El-Sayed was leading Stevens by less than 20,000.
The battle is still close. The picture is already pretty clear: Al Sayed is expected to be the Democratic Party's nominee for the Senate election from Michigan. After counting 95% of the votes in the Democratic primaries for the Senate candidate from Michigan: Al Sayed - 48.7
Hayley Stevens - 47.3 The glass is half full, literally, only half of the Democratic voters in Michigan agree with Al Sayed's anti-Israel attitude. So maybe our situation isn't really that bad in the Democratic Party? For now.
The battle is still close, but it seems that the chance of a reversal no longer exists. After counting 95% of the votes in the Democratic primary for the Michigan Senate candidate: Al Sayed - 48.7
Hayley Stevens - 47.3 The glass is half full, literally, only half of the Democratic voters in Michigan are on board with Al Sayed's anti-Israel approach. And maybe our situation isn't really that bad in the Democratic Party. Yet. [in reply to: The Democratic primaries in Michigan, or if you will, the litmus test of the current Democratic Party. The results after about 45% of the ballots have been counted show that the race is close: Abdul Al Sayed (anti-Israel) 49.6
Hayley Stevens (supporter of Israel) 46.6 According to CNN's latest estimate, Al Sayed has a 98% chance of becoming a senator from Michigan. Right now it looks much closer, the question is whether it can also turn around? Keep following and we will update! ]
DDHQ Race Update (est. 93% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 709,609 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 684,482 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 58,357 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 92% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 700,566 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 673,364 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 57,419 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 91% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 694,487 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 668,850 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 56,955 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 90% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 689,121 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 663,207 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 56,343 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 90% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 682,240 (48.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 661,480 (47.3%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 56,308 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 89% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 682,096 (49.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 655,591 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 55,894 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 88% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 674,071 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 644,431 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 55,023 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 88% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 667,902 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 642,612 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 54,974 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 87% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 663,329 (49.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 635,258 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 54,315 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 86% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 653,438 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 628,460 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 53,725 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 85% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 647,616 (49.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 621,736 (47.0%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 53,156 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 84% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 639,643 (48.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 615,767 (47.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 52,300 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 83% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 632,011 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 603,952 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 51,341(4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 628,775 (49.1%) • Haley Stevens (D): 600,348 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 50,973 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
#MISEN Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed's lead is down to 2 points with 82% of the vote in. • • El-Sayed 48.9% • Haley Stevens 47.1 • Mallory McMorrow 4
#MISEN Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed's lead is down to 2 points with 82% of the vote in. • • El-Sayed 48.9% • Haley Stevsn 47.1 • Mallory McMorrow 4
DDHQ Race Update (est. 82% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 624,237 (49.2%) • Haley Stevens (D): 595,334 (46.9%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 50,495 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 81% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 618,675 (49.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 587,295 (46.8%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 49,816 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 79% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 604,726 (49.2%) • Haley Stevens (D): 575,703 (46.8%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 48,864 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 78% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 600,241 (49.5%) • Haley Stevens (D): 565,113 (46.6%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 48,072 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 78% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 597,965 (49.5%) • Haley Stevens (D): 563,041 (46.6%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 47,890 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 77% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 591,793 (49.6%) • Haley Stevens (D): 554,421 (46.5%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 47,209 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 75% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 581,500 (49.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 542,570 (46.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 46,136 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 74% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 575,411 • (49.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 536,799 • (46.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 45,502 • (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 74% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 575,172 (49.7%) • Haley Stevens (D): 536,547 (46.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 45,484 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 70% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 540,096 (50.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 498,339 (46.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 42,386 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 68% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 527,754 (50.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 487,371 (46.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 40,904 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 67% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 517,664 (49.9%) • Haley Stevens (D): 479,279 (46.2%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 39,990 (3.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 64% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 499,463 (50.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 460,366 (46.1%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 38,316 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 58% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 445,896 (49.8%) • Haley Stevens (D): 416,348 (46.5%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 33,841 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: Dr. Abdul El-Sayed’s margin narrowed significantly about 20 minutes ago, after Detroit released a batch of more than 40,000 absentee votes that heavily favored Representative Haley Stevens. Much of the city’s Election Day vote has yet to be reported, though, and El-Sayed has fared better in person in other jurisdictions.
Live: Dr. Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens are locked in a tight battle for the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan. El-Sayed, who led by nearly 30 percentage points earlier in the night, has seen his advantage shrink to less than four percentage points. He is winning in-person votes — including both early and Election Day ballots — by roughly 25 percentage points, while Stevens is carrying mail-in ballots by a similar margin.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 25% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 199,050 (51.0%) • Haley Stevens (D): 177,109 (45.4%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 13,850 (3.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 23% in): Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary • • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 182,241 (51.3%) • Haley Stevens (D): 160,944 (45.3%) • Mallory McMorrow (D): 12,266 (3.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
Where does the news lean?
20YES124NO83neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
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Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Primary elections in Michigan are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
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