Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?5
Open$827Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters98%match98¢+2%
Record heat and raging fires ring in 2026 across the Southern Hemisphere
NOReuters98%match98¢+2%
Record heat and raging fires ring in 2026 across the Southern Hemisphere
NOThe Economist99%match99¢+1%
The past 11 years have been the warmest since records began, with the past three topping the leader board. Climate researchers expect 2026 to be another record-breaker
NOTIME98%match97¢+3%
2025 was the third hottest year on record, according to Europe’s top climate experts
NOBloomberg99%match98¢+2%
2025 was the third-hottest year on record, coming in behind 2023 and 2024 and making it clear that climate change has arrived
Where does the news lean?
0YES5NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
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