How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?150-174
ResolvedOutcome: No$44Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Live: Over 50% fewer ships attempted to cross Strait of Hormuz than the previous week, data firm says
Bloomberg: - Hormuz Street Monitor data: Near-total paralysis continues through the Strait of Hormuz, with the waterway still classified as "closed" and only 22 vessels transiting in the last 24 hours. - Windward: Shipping traffic in Hormuz plummeted overnight, with only 6 vessels passing through. - Departures have almost completely stopped, with only one vessel leaving.
MarineTraffic, a platform specializing in tracking maritime traffic: - Commercial traffic continues in the Strait of Hormuz... 108 ship transits recorded in three days. - MarineTraffic data shows that, despite geopolitical and security risks, commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains stable. - According to this data, 108 confirmed ship transits were recorded in this waterway between July 3 and 5. - The details of transit traffic by day are as follows: 43 transits on July 3, 34 on July 4, and 31 on July 5. The distribution of sailing directions was also relatively balanced, with 60 east-west voyages and 48 west-east voyages. - Ships continue to use various transit routes; 44 ships passed through the Iranian route, 30 through the Omani route, and 10 through the International Maritime Organization (IMO) route, while 24 ships were classified as "dark ships" or of unknown identity. - The transit included different types of ships, including oil tankers, container ships, bulk cargo ships, and gas tankers.
Where does the news lean?
6YES9NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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