How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?100+
ResolvedOutcome: No$17Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
CNN reported that while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant expressed hope that an agreement with the Islamic Republic to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be reached “by Tuesday or Wednesday,” shipping analysts say that fewer than 10 ships typically pass through the waterway daily. According to Clapperboard data, only nine crossings of the Strait of Hormuz were recorded on Sunday, August 1, and only two of them were oil tankers. The report also said that some vessels are traveling with their tracking systems turned off, making it difficult to assess the situation. The CEO of Saudi Aramco also said that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen today, it could take up to 18 months to recover from the loss of oil reserves. He also estimated that global markets are losing more than 100 million barrels of oil per week due to the restrictions on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Where does the news lean?
0YES4NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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