How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?100+
ResolvedOutcome: No$1Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
As tensions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, new Kepler data shows that only six commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, August 16, down from a 10-day average of 11. Kepler said no crude oil or LNG tankers were recorded among the vessels. Iran International's Marzieh Hosseini reports on the latest reports on ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters, citing maritime traffic monitoring data: Ship crossings through the Strait of Hormuz have increased slightly compared to the beginning of the week 6 cargo ships passed through the waterway on Monday
Kepler data: 5 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, and traffic came to a complete standstill on Sunday. #AlArabiya_Business
Shipping data shows no vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, compared to only 5 vessels on Saturday.
Kepler: On Saturday, only five ships carrying essential goods passed through the Strait of Hormuz; no ships passed through on Sunday This is while at the beginning of last week, 31 ships had passed through the Strait / Selection
Shipping data shows no vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, compared to only 5 vessels last Saturday.
Kepler data shows that commercial ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near standstill over the weekend after three vessels operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked. According to Reuters, only five cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, and none were recorded on Sunday, August 15, compared to 31 at the end of last week. Reuters wrote that some ships may have passed through the waterway with silent tracking systems. Before the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic in March, more than 130 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, and one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments were transported through this route. Abbas Araqchi, the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic, has said that the resumption of shipping depends on Washington accepting Tehran's conditions regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters, citing shipping data: No vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Where does the news lean?
0YES19NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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